I am not a gigging musician, but I was wondering the same thing.
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You forgot to mention that bars and restaurants will also have other added expenses, like PPE for employees, disposable menus, lots of extra disinfection costs, and glass/plexiglass partitions. All of those expenses add up, and they most likely won't have full amount of people or extra money for bands. But I am no expert, just watching as things unfold.
I am actually just worried about the local bars and restaurants in general. I don't think a lot of them can survive without help.
My 2 cents...